The Gaza War does not deviate from other wars: an utterly futile conflict, where the combatants believe it was imposed upon them; neither side achieved the goals they announced in the early days of the war. Israel did not eliminate Hamas or the potential military threats from Gaza and only managed to liberate a few hostages alive and six bodies of other hostages through military means. The others who were released were freed under an exchange deal signed with Hamas a month and a half after the war began. Over 100 hostages remain in the hands of Hamas and its allies in Gaza, with an unknown number of them alive or dead.
Unachieved Goals and Unexpected Results
Israel’s failure to achieve its declared military objectives is accompanied by a new and unenviable political situation – both externally and internally: increasing diplomatic isolation and political pressure from its allies and global public opinion, which it did not anticipate; along with deep internal conflicts and struggles unprecedented in wartime.
Meanwhile, Hamas gained considerable legitimacy and an aura it perhaps did not anticipate on the night of October 7. This has given it a political advantage over its Palestinian rivals and a significant moral boost, compensating to a large extent for the severe military losses it suffered at the hands of the enemy.
These unplanned outcomes prevented its fighters and supporters from feeling disappointed when the operation did not result in securing Al-Aqsa Mosque or liberating all Palestinian prisoners in Israel as hoped by the “Al-Aqsa Flood”.
Few people now remember that “securing Al-Aqsa Mosque” and “liberating all Palestinian prisoners in Israel” were top goals intended to be achieved through the “October 7 Operation”. These goals remain distant.
Contrary to what was expected from Hamas and its Palestinian allies in armed resistance, the number of Palestinian prisoners has significantly increased and their conditions in Israeli prisons have worsened; the number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank and occupied Palestinian territories has increased; and Israel has regained most of its control over areas under the Palestinian Authority. Additionally, Itamar Ben Gvir, the hardline Israeli Minister of National Security has tightened restrictions on Al-Aqsa Mosque and increased pressure and provocations against its Muslim visitors.
From this bleak perspective, the Palestinian Authority and those aligned with its political line view the “Al-Aqsa Flood” negatively. However, leaving aside internal Palestinian political considerations and conflicts, the issue appears more complex than can be easily judged with a “yes” or “no” based on Manichean thinking. The duality of “bad” and “good” is inadequate here to address the subject as inferred from analysing the recurring and renewed variables related to the operation.
Recurring Changes Stagnate
Once again, the Israeli army (Tzahal) ordered the residents to leave Khan Yunis for a “safe” area designated by it. Once again, Israeli air and ground forces attacked Khan Yunis before and during the residents’ move to the “safe area”. Once again, Tzahal killed dozens of people in Khan Yunis, Deir al-Balah and elsewhere: children, women, the elderly and others.
Once again, General Daniel Hagari will say that his forces are conducting a campaign to eliminate a high-ranking commander or a specific group from Hamas or Islamic Jihad or that they are working to free hostages or retrieve their bodies.
Once again, the US administration will echo the Israeli narrative; once again, it may not bother to publicly and clearly confirm its credibility, merely repeating it and hinting at a possible agreement to release the hostages and stop the war as a smokescreen through pointless negotiations.
Once again, voices opposing Israel and voices countering those in the Western world will emerge with equal intensity. Once again, the Arab voice will remain faint and embarrassed, waiting and biding its time until the storm passes and the “normalisation” series resumes. Once again, the Palestinian Authority will be absent from the battlefield, punishing Hamas and its allies, considering that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation did not achieve any of its declared objectives and in the best cases, can be described as “a fool brought upon herself”.
Once again, Abu Ubaida will announce heroic operations carried out by the Palestinian resistance; once again, Al Jazeera and its military experts, such as Major General Al-Duwairi, will reinforce the statement of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades spokesman by showing and explaining video recordings documenting the mentioned operations.
Once again, Hezbollah attacks on Israeli settlements near the southern Lebanese border will continue; once again, it will display aerial footage of sensitive Israeli installations and targets, military and logistical, obtained by its drones “like the Hoopoe” or others.
Once again, Tzahal will respond with extreme brutality and violence by bombing Lebanese villages and assassinating party cadres and fighters; regardless of whether it costs the annihilation of their families or the killing of other civilians.
Once again, Brigadier General Yahya Saree, the military spokesman for the Houthis, will announce counter-naval operations against ships heading to ports in occupied Palestine and aerial drone attacks reaching inside Israel…
Once again, Palestinians will be forced to make great sacrifices. Once again, their supporters will be proud of their resilience and commend their bravery as if they had no choice but to face annihilation or endure a war of extermination imposed upon them.
Once again, the cycle of blind and brutal Israeli violence against Palestinians to force them to surrender and accept the usurpation of their lands by an occupying aggressor will continue. Once again, they have not and will not submit: the oppressor’s violence breeds violence in the oppressed, prompting the oppressor to increase his violence and the oppressed to escalate his resistance… and so on.
Once again, and finally – but not least, the vicious cycle keeps spinning without stopping until God supports a decreed matter and causes something unforeseen to happen, which may occur in the not-too-distant future.
Renewed Variables: Causes for Hope and Concern
The decreed matter is the persistence of Palestinian resistance. As previously stated, this issue is settled: Israel and its American protectors have left Palestinians no choice but to resist in its various forms: armed, political and cultural…
The other matter concerns the development of trends shaping the trajectory of alliances and international relations. The signs include changes in the balance of geopolitical power on the international stage affecting American influence, harmed by the rise of China and Russia’s recovery of much of its strength and the declining influence of the West in general, in parallel with rising countries whose weight and impact are growing in international competitions and relations: Turkey, India, Brazil, Iran and South Africa…
These geopolitical changes and the accompanying increasing weakening of American influence put Israel’s security at an unprecedented serious risk in the medium and long term. The ongoing debate in American society and decision-making circles about Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza war is a testament to an unprecedented movement in American policy lines towards Israel.
In this regard, concerns are emerging about a feeling spreading gradually within Israel and among its supportive lobbies that the burden of the Zionist state on the United States has become unbearably heavy in the not-too-distant future. The next American administration will undoubtedly consider these concerns.
Whether under the presidency of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the leadership emerging from the next elections will need to handle the Middle East file with methods that take into account the aforementioned changes and those to come. All indications are that American interests can no longer be confined to blind and unconditional support for the Zionist regime, regardless of the cost to Washington.
The Democratic candidate, unlike her predecessor, seems not to have been brought up believing that “guaranteeing Israel’s security is the secret to political success for American leaders both domestically and internationally” (see: “The Gaza War: President Biden as if he woke up to a mouse…”).
As for as the Republican candidate is concerned, we all remember his slogan: “America first”. This is a slogan embraced by the far-right worldwide, where every radical right-wing political organisation raises it from their national perspective.
They have no objection to applying it to Israel – or any other country – if necessary, requiring essential reordering in their foreign relations and strategic and tactical alliances.
True, in terms of the relations between Israel and the American administration, the fact that the parties in both states may be ideologically aligned theoretically facilitates cooperation between them.
However, emerging and accelerating geopolitical changes impose financial and strategic constraints that do not allow the American administration to bear, as it did before, the burdens of the Zionist state unconditionally.
It has no choice but to seek alternatives to the “pampering” policy it has provided to the Zionist entity so far with unmatched generosity in international relations. The “two-state solution” seems the most likely in mind and reality, provided that the United States genuinely adopts it and works to achieve it seriously and effectively.
It can be said in this regard that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” moved the Palestinian cause in an unprecedentedly fruitful way; on one hand, it demonstrated Palestinian resistance resilience, and on the other, its urgent need to unite its ranks and achieve peace and stability for its people who are tired of wars and their tragedies and aspire to live safely under a fully sovereign Palestinian state.
The “October 7 Operation” also revealed a structural weakness in the Zionist state that will have effects on its primary protector – the United States.
We believe it is time for the latter to have a new perspective to face the situation resulting from the “Al-Aqsa Flood” and its consequences; a keen perspective that inevitably involves accepting and supporting the restoration of Palestinian rights.
Otherwise, no one in the American administration or its pampered protector should blame themselves if the power of the next “Al-Aqsa Flood” is greater and more damaging than its predecessor.
Retired Colonel El Boukhakhary Mohamed Mouemel Al Yaakoubi
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